The global diamond market continues its cautious journey through a complex and evolving landscape, and July 2025 has been no exception. As someone deeply connected with the trade, we have been closely monitoring the subtle shifts—both on the surface and underneath the numbers. The Rapaport Market Comment this week, paired with updated price sheets, paints a mixed but telling picture. Here is our research take on what’s happening.
Still Waters on the Surface—but Tensions Underneath
One of the first things we noticed in this week’s Rapaport Report was the absence of price changes across the board. No sharp drops, no sudden spikes. On paper, that might seem like a sign of stability—but in reality, it often signals hesitation. Markets don’t always move during moments of uncertainty; they pause.
Considering the unstable prices, the demand and supply patterns are clearly fluctuating. According to Rapaport, fancy shapes—especially in sizes above 2 ct—are outperforming rounds. This is not a sudden shift but the continuation of a trend we’ve been seeing for several quarters now. Customers are searching for value, individuality, and distinctiveness. And in a world of algorithm-fed shopping experiences, fancy cuts offer the uniqueness that rounds can’t always deliver.
Fancies Rising: Elongated Shapes Steal the Spotlight
There’s strong traction for elongated ovals, marquises, emeralds, and long radiants. Demand is notably high in 2.50 to 2.99 ct. sizes, with a price of 15% to 20% being observed in many transactions. Even long cushions are reportedly trading at 20–25% over square ones. This premium speaks to both limited supply and interest.
The data shows notable U.S. retail interest in ovals (D-I, VS-SI quality), particularly in the 0.30–0.49 ct range. This suggests that even the smaller-sized fancy market is benefiting from consumer appetite, despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.
India's Weak Sentiment Adds Caution
On the supply side, India’s situation remains challenging. June polished exports went down 23% year over year, and rough imports also dropped by 4%. There’s no denying the role geopolitical concerns are playing—President Trump’s recent ambiguous statements about the India-U.S. trade deal have done nothing to build confidence.
This combined pressure of uncertain trade terms and slowing exports is reducing margins and depressing outlooks for Indian manufacturers and exporters. We’re already seeing slower factory operations and quieter manufacturing zones in Surat.
U.S. Retailers Are Cooling Off
U.S. retail demand, though steady, is far from robust. The big players are holding back on holiday orders, waiting for implications of greater clarity around interest rates and inventory movement. This conservative approach from the top has a cascading effect across the supply chain—from wholesalers to polishers.
Yet, high-end luxury is still holding its own. Richemont brands reported a 7% year-over-year growth in fiscal Q1 sales, driven by the high-net-worth clientele. This signals a “K-shaped” recovery of sorts—where demand is strong at the top tier but unstable below.
Our Observations from the Price List
While no price changes were marked in the July 18 report, there are critical notes worth paying attention to:
- 0.80–0.89 ct. rounds are commanding a 10%–15% price, reflecting their sweet-spot status for engagement rings and investment buyers.
- 2.50+ ct. fancies and rounds are commanding the highest price across the board.
- Well-cut diamonds are becoming scarcer, especially in larger sizes and elongated shapes. The market is clearly favourable to quality over quantity.
Final Thought: The Calm Before a Storm or a Gentle Stabilisation?
From our point of view, the current state of the diamond market is best described as “dim alertness”. Prices might not be falling, but the vibes aren't positive either. Traders and retailers are cautious, and many are focused on lean stocks and selective buying.
If the geopolitical fog clears and interest rates begin to ease, we could see a stronger rebound by the year’s end. But until then, it's a market driven by cautious optimism, fancy-shaped prices, and a clear shift toward quality-driven demand.
The takeaway? Whether you’re a trader, retailer, or investor, it’s time to focus on specialisation—understanding which cuts, sizes, and qualities are moving—and planning for agility in Q4.
Stay Ahead with the Diamond Calculator App
Want accurate price estimates aligned with Rapaport?
Track valuations on the go with the Diamond Price Calculator App—trusted by traders and jewellers.
