The Shine Is Fading
Let’s be honest—something is not right in the diamond market as well as the luxury segment. Prices are going down, people aren’t buying as much, and many diamonds are just sitting in stores. They aren’t selling, and the shelves are full. It feels like the market has slowed down, and no one knows when it will pick up again.
Inventory’s Up, Interest Is Down
Here's the thing: too many diamonds, not enough buyers. It's a classic mismatch. Over the past few years, production was full steam ahead—everybody thought demand would keep soaring. But that boom? It’s fizzled out.
Now, retailers are tightening their belts. They're avoiding big inventory orders and focusing on what’s already in stock. Shoppers? Well, many of them are either spending less or choosing cheaper options. That includes alternative stones and—yes—lab-grown diamonds.
Price Drops Speak Volumes
Let’s talk numbers. July wasn’t kind to polished diamonds:
- 1-carat stones dipped 2.3%
- Half-carat dropped over 3%
- Even the big, pricey ones—3 carats and up—lost value
It may not look like a massive dip on paper, but in the diamond business, that’s significant. Margins are thin already. Add this kind of drop and you’re talking real trouble for wholesalers and dealers.
Midstream Players Are Feeling the Squeeze
If you’re sitting in the middle of the supply chain—between miners and retailers—chances are you’re feeling the heat the most.
Many midstream businesses stocked up on rough diamonds earlier in the year, hoping for strong sales. They polished them, prepped them, priced them. And then… nothing. Retailers didn’t bite. So now, those stones are just sitting there, losing value.
Honestly? It’s a nightmare scenario. Like stocking up on umbrellas right before a drought.
De Beers and Alrosa Are Tapping the Brakes
To ease the pressure, major mining companies have started slowing their sales of rough stones. That includes names like De Beers and Alrosa. The goal is to give the market a breather—less supply means less pressure, at least in theory.
But let’s be honest—it’s a slow-moving fix. The market’s already flooded. It's going to take time before things even start to balance.
US and China Aren’t Spending Big
Historically, the U.S. and China have been the industry’s heavy hitters. This year? Not so much.
In the U.S., inflation and general economic anxiety are pushing people to save instead of splurge. Over in China, the luxury sector hasn’t bounced back the way many had hoped. Fewer weddings, fewer gift buyers—it all adds up.
Lab-Grown Diamonds Are Changing the Rules
This one’s big: lab-grown diamonds are becoming the go-to for a growing number of shoppers. Why? They look just as good to the eye, but they’re cheaper—sometimes by a lot.
Younger buyers especially don’t mind skipping natural stones in favour of lab-grown bling. It’s not a small trend anymore—it’s reshaping the market entirely. Natural diamond sellers are losing ground, and fast.
What’s Next for the Industry?
Some experts believe things could pick up by the end of 2025. If supply slows and demand makes even a modest comeback (think: holiday season, engagements, weddings), we might see a price rebound.
But don’t bank on a miracle. Recovery will likely be a slow climb, not a rocket.
Final Thoughts
The diamond industry has hit a strange phase—lots of product, not enough buyers, and a rising alternative eating into the pie. The old playbook isn’t working anymore.
For retailers and dealers, it’s time to rethink strategies. For buyers? Well, if you’re shopping for a diamond, now might be a pretty smart time.
Stay Ahead with the Diamond Price Calculator App
Need precise diamond price estimates in line with Rapaport?
Easily track and calculate diamond values anytime, anywhere—trusted by 1000+ traders worldwide.
